A vaccine for the economy: India can easily convert the corona crisis into an opportunity. Here’s how
We have lived with Covid-19 for over six months now. The time elapsed has helped us better understand the virus that confounded most health experts. This also allows us to plan for a post-Covid India, when hopefully the virus would be in control, but we will still have the enormous job of rebuilding our economy.
Here’s what we know about corona now. First, the bad news – Covid is fairly resilient. No other flu virus has ever spread like this in India’s summer heat, for instance. The virus won’t just ‘go away on its own’ as many felt it eventually would. Especially in large, relatively free democracies, containing the virus is a daunting task. In fact, the top three countries with coronavirus cases (the US, Brazil, India) are the world’s top three democracies.
However, there is also some good news. The death rate versus corona positives is lower than originally thought (less than 1%). Since the virus began early this year, global deaths are a little under 7 lakh, at the time of writing this article. While this is a big absolute number, an estimated 3.3 crore people have died this year worldwide, from all possible causes (source: worldometer).
One more positive news about coronavirus is that face masks and social distancing, relatively simpler to implement than full lockdowns, seem to work just as well in containing the spread. Finally, the most positive news is that multiple vaccines are in final, Phase-III trials.
While success in these trials is not guaranteed, with so many different vaccines being tested, there is an excellent chance that we would have a vaccine within the next six months. As an optimist and based on the sheer number of trials and the historical success rates of past Phase-III vaccine trials, I would put the chance of a Covid-19 vaccine being available by February 2021 at over 80%!
For optimists we must be. If we give up hope and fall into despair, we will never be able to make the Indian economy recover. We have to start the work for a post-corona world right now if we want to make the most of it.
To pessimists, a crisis feels like the end. To me that is a loser’s mindset, something we need to shed right now. For optimists this crisis is not the end, but the beginning. This is a wonderful, once-in-a-century opportunity for India. The entire world was smug and comfortable with their factories churning out output in China. If they had to grow, they simply added capacity in China. Not anymore.
Now, even if they don’t move their existing factories out of China, they will think twice about adding more capacity at the same location or opening new ones. This is where India has to come in, wave its hand, and say to the world – ‘Guys, we are ready. We’ll manufacture stuff for you. Give us a chance.’
Will merely waving our hand and extending invitations be enough? Absolutely not. We have to be ready. We have to not just invite; we have to be an attractive, alternative destination to China. For this we need to change a few things. This isn’t just about fiscal spending and gobbledygook of suggestions with unending economic data. Here’s what we can and need to do in practical terms.
1) Have better internet connectivity – It’s 2020, there’s no excuse for having sluggish data or bad Wi-Fi connections. Post-Covid, reliance on data has risen manifold. India is still terrible in data and Wi-Fi speeds compared to China and other Asian countries. Do what it takes. Fix it. You cannot be taken seriously as a nation if you have bad Wi-Fi.
2) Improve the speeds of our ports, trains and even roads. Ports in Hong Kong and China move goods five times faster than us, need to be faster if we hope to compete with China.
Create an Arhchan mukt Bharat.
If someone wants to move a $200 million plant out of China to India, how can you guarantee me that there will be no arhchan? Answering this fundamental question will determine India’s post-Covid economic status, the future of our new generation and frankly, India’s place in the world.
India can easily convert the corona crisis to an opportunity. Maybe that is why we threaten China a bit (which might even explain their ratcheting up of border tensions). However, mere chest thumping, slogans or patriotic zeal won’t make us the next manufacturing hub. We have to focus, prepare and offer something compelling to the world.
Once Covid is over, let’s not go back to unproductive issues. In fact, let’s start getting ready for a corona vaccinated world right now. Let’s vaccinate our economy so that it can remain healthy and thrive in the coming decades.
译文来源：三泰虎 /p/50507.html 译者：Jessica.Wu
A fantastic summary of present state of affairs.I am really interested to know, why these people who are giving so many advices today to go nment stayed silent during 2004 to 2014?
Crisis should be utilesed for economic growth but how, is the question.The suggested option of better internet connectivity, improve speed for transportation and archan mukt bharat. None of these deal with economic slowdown and lockdown post Corona since economic slowdown was because Indian goods were not able to match items manufactured and imported both in terms of cost and quality from abroad.
U were going to commit suicide, what happened, Ek Kaam Bhi Khud se Mahi Kar saktaa, Please commit suicide.World would be nice place to live without a Rapist, Paedophile like u。
A good dream.
Less sound bites and more action
Govt should build a good infra to attract the foreign investors and also to facilitate local entrepreneurs...
Easier said than done. A country where procurement for equipmentsequipments/arms for armed forces are considered as an opportunity earn monies, not considering consequences on security of the Country, change will take generations. We can only hope and pray for the best
Indian Economy was down even before Lockdown, now due to this Corona Virus Indian Economy is knocked down
The opportunity was always there It was and IS about go nment supporting the business with their consistent policy framework and providing them with the infrastructure and tax incentives which is still lacking though there are lots of talk but no groundwork from the go nment end yet .
Sorry Chetan ji, we lost this race months ago when China pulled up its socks and put on its running shoes. You just have to look at the performance of China specific equity funds vs India specific equity funds for proof.
Easy to say/Speak out but almost impossible to achieve the Goal
Also we must know that our existing factories in Morbi and Surat are still closed as labour is not willing to come back from Bihar and UP. our Southern states and agriculture states like Punjab are facing shortage of labour for many years. So for whom do we need new factories for ?
We Indians always wait for a crisis so that we can then convert it into an opportunity. Remember 1991 ! ! Let us do it again.
First of all we must find out the several reasons for spread of the virus . We must study carefully those reasons and find out solutions See how a small virus is causing havoc to this worldWe then frame our industrial policy based on aboveWhether existing one or modified oneRapid industrialisation may again pose health risks if not implemented on eco friendly Model
How did Software industry boom in india if we are so lazy.. India will definitely have a bright future as new generation is super charges to work for betterment of country
Its important to deal with China and make the CCP realize that its growth and power in China ,is linked to cordodlity in relations with India and the other Countries ringing the South China sea and South Easr Asia. We cannot depend on USA to bala us out in case of real fought conflict with China.